what are the odds?

Before I start, I just want to say I wrote this some time ago.
I've ummed and I've aaahd and I've decided that I will publish it.
But I nearly didn't.
I nearly didn't because Malifaux is a brilliant game with so much more to it than the cards.  Because, stripping out and looking at the cards in this way is perhaps not how I want to view my beautiful game.  But, I have written it, it is part of the game, and as I'm an entirely un-educated statistician it's probably meaningless anyway.

So, read it if you want.  Correct me if it's needed.  But don't get too worked up about it.  Malifaux is so much more than a card game that this is barely worth the effort.

-

Malifaux is a card game.  Well, at least partially, and as such is subject to chance, and these chances are measurable.

(c) Wyrd Miniatures

Do you know what the chances are of you picking up the Red Joker in a hand you draw?
Do you know the chance of getting the red joker on any given flip?
Do you want to know?
Any card player who plays bridge or poker or any other card game with any degree of seriousness will know the odds of key events happening.  Perhaps we should too?
I'm no mathematician or card sharp so anything I say here may be misguided and inaccurate but I do have some thoughts.

Basics - 54 cards 4*13 cards suits + 2 jokers.  Playing with the jokers gives slightly longer odds than standard card games that aren't played with jokers.

Chance of drawing the Red Joker in a 6 card hand?  6 chances from 54 cards = 6/54 or 11.1%  Which means that approximately one in 10 hands drawn will contain the Red joker.  Except that when we draw our hands some cards have already been flipped/ discarded.  Might just be one you discarded from previous hand - 6/53 or 11.3% or 2 6/52 or 11.5% or more, all of which increase the chance of you getting the Red Joker in your hand.
There are other factors too, such as ability to hold more cards in the hand such as minions or masters who add to your hand size.  Arcane Effigy lets you hold an extra card, combine that with a master who holds an extra card (Rasputina i think?) and you have 8 cards in your hand rather than 6.  that's 33% more cards.  but is it 33% more chance of drawing the Red Joker?

Hand Size	Cards	Chance	%
6	54	1/9	11.1
6	53	1/8.83	11.3
6	52	1/8.67	11.5
7	54	1/7.7	12.9
7	53	1/7.57	13.2
7	52	1/7.43	13.5
8	54	1/6.75	14.8
8	53	1/6.63	15.0
8	52	1/6.5	15.4

please excuse the fraction decimal hibrid.

So that's a reasonable increase in chance of picking out that coveted card.  Also, with a larger hand size the odds grow faster as you loose cards to choose from.  So the change over 3 cards (54 - 52) at 6 card hand size is 0.4%, at 8 card hand size it's 0.6%.

Does this make the Arcane Effigy worth taking?  Well, it costs 4SS.  So that's 4 SS to increase your chance of drawing by a couple of %.  What else could you do with those 4SS?  take them as Soul Stones for one.  Each one giving you a better chance than any single card in your hand, of being the red Joker.
If the Red joker hasn't been played, as cards are played from your deck you get an increased chance of drawing the Red.  Two cards flipped, 6 in your hand chance of Red Joker being next is 1 in 46 or just under 2.17%.  2 Flipped 8 in hand it's 1 in 44 or 2.27%.  But, if half the decks been played without it popping up?
6 in hand 23 played 1 in 23 or 4.34%  Still not great is it?  But it is twice what it was before. For any given card in a 6 card hand the chances at the time of drawing your card are between 1/ 52 (assuming 2 cards flipped) 1.9% and 1/46 or 2.17%.  the thing with Souls Stones is though only one or maybe two models in a typical crew can use them.  If the RJ is in your hand anyone has access to it.

Apply that extra card in hand to a requirement for high cards in a specific suit, or even just high cards in any suit and it becomes even more useful.  I think I may well be acquiring an Arcane Effigy to run alongside Rasputina in the hope that the shortened odds will give me an upper hand, a lightly increased chance at least.  Of course, in play these odds may not bear fruit.  We're talking about shortening long odds by only a little, but I reckon it's worth looking at.

The point of this article then, is not to tell you the odds, I've probably got them wrong, but to get you thinking about them.  The card mechanic is core to the game we love and should be given due consideration, go give it some thought and try and calculate the odds that matter to you..  What are the chance of me flipping a certain suit for instance, might be worth knowing that one.
Nor am I claiming that the odds are more important than crew selection, crew knowledge and good tactics because I don't think they are.  But I do think having an idea of them is a worthwhile exercise. If you're hoping for a good flip, at least have some idea what hope you have.

Now I just need some mathematician to shoot me down in flames ;-)

changing tides of malifaux addiction

I am nothing if not fickle and mercurial when it comes to my Malifaux addiction.
How I envy those who can stick to a single faction or even to a long term plan.
Stick to Arcanists was my motto going in to 2012.  how long did that last?
Looks like not long as I now have a Collodi hankering big time.
I have Zoraida sitting there un-loved, un-assembled and most definately un-painted.
Having looked through Twsting Fates Avatar Zoraida is one of the few Avatars  I'd consider that matches my current crop of masters. Avatar Justice, Pandora and Rasputina all being sub-par as far as I can see, although I'm beginning to wonder about aPandora (No, really, I have an idea, though I'm not sure it's one I'd want to play)

Collodi (c) Wyrd Miniatures

And those little dolls and marionettes look so frickin' cool, even Collodi is an excellent figure.
So, here's what I'm thinking of getting

Collodi blister
Marionettes blister
Puppet wars expansion pack three
Primordial magic (maybe)
Coppelius

Coppelius is not really part of this plan, but he's a figure I've wanted to add to my Neverborn collection for a while so I'm using this as an excuse.
As you can see I'm not getting the box set.  Why not?  Well, because I'm going to get a Puppet wars expansion set to use as my Wicked Dolls (my thanks to whoever posted that idea on the Wyrd form).  This way I get 8 wicked dolls that can also be used as the figures they actually represent, although I'll need to make some of them magnetised so they can be transferred to larger bases for that purpose.
Primordial Magic, I'm actually not a fan of this sculpt so I may drop this off the list unless it seems functionally too important to do without.

Overall plan then, with this crew, is fairly standard.  Zoraida does her thing, Collodi sods off and captures objectives etc.. Zoraida manifests and spawns more Wicked Dolls.  A mobile, fast crew with some Obey facility.. nice.  I've already got Stitched & an Insidious Madness to add to the mix as well if I feel the need.

There you go, nothing particularly original about this lot, need to read up and see if I can't spin my own take, but it's a crew I've been hankering after, so unless I stick to my Arcnaist guns and get mech Rider and December Acolyte, I think I've found my next round of purchases.  Shame I can't squeeze Avatar Zoraida in too.

And now, a week after originally drafting this I'm considering a change.. to Nicodem.  had a resur hankering for ages, couldn't pick a master but I recon' with Nicodem I may have found an Avatar I'd like to build and play!  But, would spamming Zombies be fun?  I dunno.. Argh  So then, Seamus, there's a cool Avatar.. No!!! Heeellpp Meeee!!

twisting fates - first impressions

(c) Wyrd Miniatures

Any blog worth it's salt would have reviewed Twisting Fates within days or weeks of it's release, but not here, no, here we like to take our time, get to really know a book and then review it..  Alternatively we're skint and have only just been able to afford it.  So, somewhat late to the ball I've finally picked up a copy of Twisting Fates.
There's little here that'll be news to anyone, but for what it's worth here are my initial thoughts -

Twisting Fates is the 3rd (or 4th if you include the Rules Manual) rule book - or second expansion if you will - from Wyrd Miniatures for their Malifaux game.  The rules from the first two books, along with erata were combined into the Rules manual.

In terms of rules there's little here...  The rules included refer to the main focus of the book and that's Avatars.
Each master has specific conditions under which they may, or must, change from their normal form into their Avatar form.  Once, or as, they convert to Avatar form various things can happen, depending on the Master in question.  Some can make healing flips, most loose effects and Totems.  You replace the masters figure with their Avatar figure, and replace their stat card with the Avatar card.
Once transferred to Avatar form each Master has a new set of powers.

What else is in this book?  Well, there is a handful of minions for each faction.  Some nice looking options, not much game changing here though, a few stronger minions perhaps but mostly fairly balanced.  I've a feeling resurs do better than most here but perhaps I'm wrong, always tricky to tell before you've played with or against.

Nicodem Avatar
(c) Wyrd Miniatures

And most of the book, and it's the thickest book yet, is a tonne of fluff :-)  I love fluff.  I love this book.  I've barely started the fluff to be honest but I've enjoyed what I've read so far and can't wait to read more.

Throughout the book is sprinkled a load of new artwork.  As usual some fabulous, atmospheric, pictures from Wyrd.  They're my favourite part of the fluff and you can't fault them, except perhaps there could be more.

So, any complaints?  Well, I love the look and feel of these books but I do wish they published them in the smaller format too (like the Rules Manual) so I could read them in the bath.  These books are wonderful to hold and look at and read sitting up, but lying in bed or the bath they're just to large and heavy.  If they published them large and small I'd buy both I really would.

Zoraida Avatar
(c) Wyrd Miniatures

So, the Avatars.  So far then I'm not awfully impressed.  The Avatars I want to run are for masters I don't have.  The Avatars for Lady Justice, Pandora and Rasputina are, or seem to me after a few readings, weak. I don't know why you'd spend 2SS to take the option of turning Pandora into an immobile weakling who can't do anything significantly better than when she could move.  I mean even the tentacles don't hit hard, a Slop Haulers bucket does more damage!  And she can not move!  In Malifaux that's crazy, unless she's sat on a target I suppose, but it's not like she's static and tough all of a sudden.  LJ and Rasputina are similar.  My other two masters may be more promising (Zoraida and Perdita) but even then I'm not sure.  So far the stand outs to me have been Seamus and Ramos.  Both look like a laugh and have fabulous figures.  Colette is an interesting one, 3 models, only one is actually her.. a good thing or just 3 chances for your opponent to hit her?  Might be fun but could end up being a weakness.

Also some masters are way easier to manifest than others. Not sure why.

So, I've still plenty to read here, including many of the Avatars, but initial impressions are that
this is then another fabulously beautiful book from Wyrd.  Adding some depth to the game without upsetting the balance too much, but I suspect your usage will depend on your master.

print your own figures

This post is perhaps not Malifaux specific. OK, it' s not at all Malifaux specific, it's generic and applicable to any figure gaming system.

A quick google suggests a 3D printer is currently available for a mere £15,000. Hmm.. OK, that's a lot of money, but, like any technology it'll start to come down. And I was wondering, does this have implications for our hobby?

Why accept the costs of manufacturing, packaging and distributing figures if you can sell the template for people to print their own in their own home?

You the user would browse the wyrd web site, think, hmm.. I like that one, click a button, order it, receive the template there and then and have a figure 5 minutes later.



Mini figure 3d printed. image by Creative Tools

Now I'm no 3d printing expert, I don't know what the limitations of these devises are, but from what I've seen of what can be printed, I think these machines are more than capable of printing these figures, maybe some of them will need to be printed in sections and glued together, but they could still be printed. In fact, as you can see, a quick search and I've found someone that's already done it.

Also, for those that aren't painting fans, colour 3d printers are also available. Perhaps before too long they will be sophisticated enough to print colour well enough that you could buy a colour template and not need to paint the figure afterwards?

There would need to be a method of limiting the number of times you could print a template. GW aren't going to sell you one orc template and watch you print off 200 of the blighters are they?

Not sure if figure prices would be cheaper for the consumer or not, the manufacturer could reduce their prices as they'd have no manufacturing costs, no distribution costs and no packaging costs. However consumers would need raw materials, and the printer of course.

There are of course implications for game stores too. They sell plenty of things beyond figures, but this could make a dent.

But, at the end of the day, maybe this is all just a rambling pipe dream.

These printers are still very expensive, it might cause too much of an upheaval to the industry, and lets face it, it hasn't happened in an area it could have done already.. the books and manuals our games rely on.

What do you think? Let me know.

it lives!

contrary to recent posts, this blog will continue.  It will not die.


(C) Wyrd Miniatures

Happy days, at least for me.
I don't know how long for, but at least for a few months, hopefully indefinitely.

Calculations were done, cogs whirred, gears crunched, in the end it was found we can continue.

Hurrah.

Now all I need to do is lay vinyl flooring, install a shower and tile a bathroom, re-wire and install a new kitchen, build some wardrobes, clear my shed,  unpack my stuff and get painting.. new posts should be arriving soon then huh?

death of a blog

Regular readers will be aware of various personal issues that have impeeded the writing and development of this blog.

Firstly I lost my job and had to concentrate on finding a new one, then we moved home and my gear was packed up. I had hoped, once the move was out of the way that I could pick things up and get posting again.

Unfortunately my new job is not as well payed as my old one, my child will soon need full priced care, and other issues mean that apparantly, my hobby is depriving my family. As such I can no longer continue with it in the manner in which I would like. Consequently I will be ceasing almost all hobby activities, including this blog. This blog will taken off-line in 2 weeks time.

Meanwhile I'd like you to review my train ride to malifaux page and let me know, what you think, I should keep. One master with a crew size of 35 - 40 ss. This will enable me to continue to play against my friends, albeit in a limited way that won't have them guessing much about what I'll be putting on the table. I will also be keeping SnowStorm as it's such an awsome model and I want to finish it off. In two weeks everything else, model wise, goes on ebay. I'd really hoped to make something of this blog but it seems that I cannot do so.

Thanks for reading.

Moving

3 days away now.  3 days from a new home for me and my family.
Needless to say all my Malifaux models, books and scenery are packed away ready to move, all apart from my rules manual and model cards which are all in my rucsac for lunch time reading at work.

How long I wonder, until it's unpacked the other end.
In theory I get a nice large, powered shed all to myself.  Desks, maybe even a game table, shelves & chairs. There should be room for all of it.. We'll see. 

(c) Wyrd Miniatures

Meanwhile I will soon have another small cash injection heading my way, from sale of some GW items.  So, apart from a LONG overdue copy of Twisting Fates I have to decide what else to get. 
Bits to augment what I have?  Some arcanist minions for Rasputina for instance? 
A henchman?  Kaeris is appealing, Lucius or Collodi perhaps?  
A book 2 master?  I have none and they all appeal to some extent..
An Avatar?  I have none, Rasputina's is available?
Or should I make that move to Ressurs I've been thinking about?  Nico, McMourning and Kirai all appeal..

Anyway, it gives me something else to look forward to and think about.

I intend shortly to add a page that lists which figures I have and what state they are in, built painted etc..
Then when I ask what I should spend my money on you'll have an idea what I already have.
It should also serve to shame me into action and get painting.. yeah right ;-)

So, sorry folks, another mindles rambling post, but, fingers crossed, before long I should get some actual hobby time to report on.  Just don't hold your breath.